A shift towards electric mobility is essential for India to reduce petroleum imports, and since, two-wheelers dominate the Indian road transport sector this segment deserves an immediate attention. The electric two-wheeler technology has now matured to a significant level and a number of manufacturers have come out in the market with saleable products. In such a context, a bottom-up estimation of future penetration of electric two-wheelers on yearly-basis will help in generating insights regarding the required infrastructure, manufacturing capability, policies and technology development priorities.
TIFAC and NITI Aayog have jointly developed an Agent-based tool for analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country. The tool was prepared based on the insights developed from extensive interactions of NITI Aayog and TIFAC team members with stakeholders in the electric mobility sector and detailed literature survey on various approaches adopted in other countries for forecasting the market penetration of electric vehicles. Surveys on available vehicle specifications, future plans of vehicle manufacturers for addition of manufacturing capacity of electric two-wheelers and consumer preference for various attributes of two-wheelers provided the foundation for the development of this tool. It will help the governments, both central and states, to further frame their policies building upon the success of FAME-I and FAME-II schemes.