Energy Outlook 2023 is focused on three main scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition and the uncertainties around those judgements. The scenarios are based on existing technologies and do not consider the possible impact of entirely new or unknown technologies.
The many uncertainties surrounding the transition of the global energy system mean that the probability of any one of these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible. Moreover, the three scenarios do not provide a comprehensive range of possible paths for the transition ahead. They do, however, span a wide range of possible outcomes and so help to illustrate the key uncertainties surrounding energy markets out to 2050.
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