Draft National Electricity Plan for Generation: CEA

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has issued the draft National Electricity Plan for generation. The plan includes a review of the period 2017-22, detailed capacity addition requirement during the years 2022-27 and perspective plan projections for the years 2027-32.

Major highlights of the draft National Electricity Plan are as follows:

Review of the period 2017-22

  • The scheduled capacity addition from conventional sources during the period of 2017-22 was 51,561.15 MW as per National Electricity Plan, 2018. The capacity addition achieved from conventional sources is 30,667.91 MW for the year 2021-22.
  • India has achieved a cumulative installed renewable energy capacity (including large hydro) of 156,607.9 MW as on March 31, 2022.
  • Capacity consisting of coal (18,320 MW), hydro (4,801.5 MW) and nuclear (3,300 MW) envisaged during the period 2017-22 is slipped where COVID-19 being the major reason resulting in delay.

Detailed capacity addition requirement during the years 2022-27 and perspective plan projections for the years 2027-32

  • The projected electrical energy requirement and peak electricity demand on all-India basis is estimated as 1,874 BU and 272 GW for year 2026-27 and 2,538 BU and 363 GW for year 2031-32 respectively.
  • Projections of energy savings for utility and non-utility is estimated to be 213 TWh for the year 2026-27 and 404 TWh for year 2031-32.
  • The projections of reduction of energy demand through implementation of various programmes of demand side management is 398.49 BU for year 2026-27 and 590.53 BU for year 2031-32.
  • The installed capacity of the country as on March 31, 2022 was 398,986 MW (excluding 510 MW of diesel) comprising of 235,599 MW thermal, 6,780 MW nuclear and 156,607 MW renewables. This is considered as a base installed capacity for the study period 2022-32.
  • Under construction plants comprising of 25,950 MW of thermal power plants, 10,903 MW of hydro power plants, 1,580 MW of pumped storage plants and 7,000 MW of nuclear power plants has been considered for the studies during period of 2022-27. Additionally, a likely capacity of 8,700 MW of nuclear power plants which are at under various stages of construction (or in advance stages of development) likely to benefit during period 2027-32.
  • The retirement for period 2022-27 has been considered as 4,629 MW.
  • The capacity addition required during 2022-27 to meet the peak demand and energy requirement for the year 2026-27 is 228,541 MW comprising of 40,632 MW of conventional capacity addition (coal and lignite 33,262 MW, gas 370 MW and nuclear 7,000 MW) and 187,909 MW of renewable based capacity addition (large hydro 10,951 MW, solar 132,080, wind 40,500 MW, biomass 2,318 MW, PSP 2,060 MW) excluding 5,856 MW of likely hydro based imports.
  • The capacity addition required during 2027-32 to meet the peak demand and energy requirement for the year 2031-32 is 243,042 MW comprising of 18,134 MW of conventional capacity addition (coal 9,434 MW, nuclear 8,700 MW) and 224,908 MW of renewable based capacity addition (large hydro10,888 MW, solar 147,400 MW, wind 53,100 (onshore- 43,100 MW and offshore 10,000 MW), biomass 1,500 MW, PSP 12,020 MW) excluding 5,856 MW of likely hydro based imports.
  • All India installed capacity is likely to be 622,899 MW at the end of year 2026-27 and 865,941 MW at the end of year 2031-32.
  • It is seen that apart from under construction coal based capacity of 25GW, the additional coal based capacity required till 2031-32 may vary from 17 GW to around 28 GW. It is also seen that the BESS (5-hour) requirement in 2031-32 is varying from 51 GW to 84 GW.
  • The projection of total capacity addition is in line with the target of the country to achieve a non-fossil based installed capacity of 500 GW by the year 2029-30.
  • The domestic coal requirement in the year 2026-27 have been estimated as 831.5 million tonnes (mt) and in 2031-32 as 1,018.2 mt and imports by plants designed on imported coal to be 40 mt.
  • The total fund requirement for the period 2022-2027 is estimated to be Rs 14.31 trillion, which also includes the likely expenditure during 2022-27 for advance action for the projects expected to get commissioned during 2027-2032.
  • The total fund requirement for the period 2027-2032 has been estimated to be Rs 17.16 trillion. This fund requirement does not include advance action for the projects which may get commissioned after March 31, 2032.
  • Based on the estimation of fund requirement for the period 2022-27 and considering sector-wise equity contribution, it is estimated that developers will be required to infuse equity amount totalling to Rs 3.58 trillion. Further, they will have to arrange for total debt of Rs. 10.73 trillion.

CEA has invited comments and suggestions on the draft plan by December 05, 2022.

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