Grid Controller of India Limited recently released the Short-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (ST-NRAP) 2025-26 report prepared by National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC). A comprehensive analysis the primary objective of the ST-NRAP is to assess India’s generation resource adequacy to meet the peak and energy requirements for 2025-26. The study aims to assist states and union territories in drawing up their optimal generation resource adequacy plans.
As per the Electricity (Amendment) Rules, 2023, Indian Electricity Grid Code, 2023, and the Ministry of Power’s guidelines for the resource adequacy planning framework for India, this exercise is to be carried out annually by the NLDC, which will publish a one-year look-ahead resource adequacy plan.
Notably, the findings note supply shortages despite growth in energy infrastructure. As per the report, energy shortages are most pronounced during April-October 2025, with the most significant shortages in May 2025.
It adds that flexible and dispatchable resources, particularly battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped storage plants (PSPs), will be crucial to manage the increasing variability associated with renewable energy sources. The report also emphasises the timely commissioning of envisaged units, optimisation of planned outages and shifting from high-shortage months to low-shortage months to mitigate supply shortfalls.
Key report highlights
Demand forecasting: The report presents a comprehensive analysis of peak demand and energy consumption at both the national and regional levels. It notes that peak demand is expected to reach 273 GW in June 2025, primarily due to higher cooling requirements during the summer.
In contrast, demand is projected to drop to around 135 GW between December 2025 and January 2026, as cooler winter conditions reduce the need for air conditioning. A few critical days were identified for shortage analysis, including days with maximum and minimum demand, days with the highest and lowest variable renewable energy (VRE) generation (wind + solar), and the day with maximum thermal dispatch. The peak demand, projected to reach 292 GW (including operating reserves), is expected on June 3, 2025. On that day, shortages are anticipated during non-solar hours, highlighting the challenges in meeting peak electricity demand.
The forecast takes into account several factors, including economic growth projections that shape electricity consumption patterns, seasonal variations influencing peak summer and winter demand, and historical trends that help anticipate future load growth.
Electricity shortages are more likely during non-solar hours during April-September 2025. From December 2025 to March 2026, shortages are expected to be more prevalent during early morning or evening hours. During April-October 2025, unserved energy will typically range up to 20 GW, particularly during non-solar hours. From December 2025 to March 2026, unserved energy is expected to be slightly lower during the morning and evening ramp periods, reaching up to 5 GW.
Resource assessment and availability: To meet the projected demand, the report evaluates the availability of various generation sources. Thermal power, primarily coal and gas-based plants, remains the backbone of India’s baseload electricity supply. Hydropower is assessed for its seasonal dependency and contribution to peak load management, while nuclear power is noted for its stable grid support.
Additionally, it reviews fuel supply security, the availability of coal and gas and the adequacy of transmission infrastructure to ensure smooth power delivery. The economic dispatch analysis of gas-based generation indicates a significant increase in gas utilisation during peak demand periods. However, the high variable costs of gas-based units lead to lower utilisation compared to other generation sources. The study recommends considering advanced fuel procurement for gas stations to ensure their availability during peak demand. Additionally, securing long-term gas supply contracts aligned with projected peak demand months will enhance system adequacy and reduce reliance on costly spot market purchases.
Reserve margins and grid stability: The report stresses the importance of maintaining adequate reserve margins to handle unexpected contingencies. These include sudden demand surges due to extreme weather, power plant outages from maintenance or technical failures, and fluctuations in renewable energy generation, particularly solar and wind power. The report recommends ensuring sufficient spinning reserves and effective power procurement strategies to prevent shortages and maintain grid stability. The spinning reserve requirement of 3 per cent of the all-India demand has been considered in ST-NRAP 2025-26. This amounts to around 4,164 MW (minimum) to 8,237 MW (maximum) on the base demand forecast.
The loss of load probability, a crucial measure of grid reliability, is estimated at 12.1 per cent in the median scenario and 5.8 per cent in the best-case scenario. Similarly, the normalised energy not served, which quantifies the proportion of unmet demand, is projected at 0.37 per cent in the median scenario and 0.17 per cent in the best case scenario.
Outage management and reserve deployment: The study highlights that planned and forced outages of power generation units are expected to peak in May and August 2025, posing significant challenges to reliable power supply. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends a strategic approach, including the deployment of spinning reserves equivalent to 3 per cent of the total demand (ranging from 4,164-8,237 MW) to provide immediate backup during shortfalls.
Additionally, the use of advanced forecasting tools is advised to anticipate peak demand periods and optimise power procurement strategies.
Renewable energy integration and challenges
As India rapidly expands its renewable energy capacity, the report outlines key strategies for the seamless integration of solar, wind and hydropower into the grid. These strategies focus on improving forecasting accuracy to predict fluctuations in renewable generation, advancing energy storage solutions such as battery and pumped hydro storage, and enhancing grid flexibility to manage intermittent power supply.
The report also highlights crucial policy measures and infrastructure investments needed to strengthen India’s power sector. It advocates for capacity expansion across thermal, nuclear, hydro and renewable energy projects to meet the growing demand. To mitigate energy shortages, close monitoring of planned capacity additions is essential. These include 45,878 MW of VRE, 17,760 MW of thermal generation, 3,275 MW of hydro generation, 3.9 MW of BESS and 2.7 MW of PSP. Ensuring the timely commissioning of these generation resources is critical, as any delay may exacerbate supply shortages, especially during high-demand months. A detailed list of under-construction capacity expected to be commissioned for benefits in 2025-26 is also included in the report.
The report also promotes market-based power procurement mechanisms such as day-ahead markets, real-time markets and long-term power purchase agreements to enhance efficiency. Additionally, it underscores the importance of cybersecurity and digitalisation to protect the grid from cyber threats while adopting smart grid technologies for better monitoring and control. Finally, regulatory interventions are recommended to align power sector policies with evolving market dynamics, energy transition goals and consumer-centric reforms.
Conclusion
The ST-NRAP 2025-26 serves as a roadmap for ensuring India’s energy security amidst rapid economic growth and evolving power sector dynamics. By addressing demand-supply gaps, renewable integration, grid stability and policy needs, the report will help stakeholders make informed decisions to achieve a sustainable, reliable and resilient electricity ecosystem.
Akanksha Chandrakar